Agenda Ecuador 2040: A roadmap to strengthen investment, expand access to financing, and enhance business competitiveness

By Javier Robalino Orellana & Josemaría Bustamante, Robalino

Agenda Ecuador 2040 marks a shift in how the country approaches economic growth. More than a government plan, it is a roadmap designed to strengthen private investment, broaden access to financing, and improve competitiveness through structural reforms and a long-term vision.

Led by the Government of Ecuador with technical support from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the Agenda seeks to consolidate a more stable macroeconomic environment, stronger legal certainty, and greater investor confidence. Its purpose is to mobilize capital toward productive projects, strengthen the financial system, and create the conditions needed to accelerate sustainable economic growth.

Beyond its public policy guidelines, this initiative sends an important signal to the business sector: organizations with solid projects, investment capacity, and sound strategic planning will be best positioned to capture the opportunities that emerge as the proposed reforms are implemented.
 
Ecuador by the Numbers

Indicator	Historical Period (2014-2023)	Recovery (2024-2025)	Projections (2026-2029)
Average GDP Growth	1.9%	3.7% (2025)	2.7% Average
GDP Per Capita Growth	0.6%	Trend reversal	Sustained expansion
Country Risk	998 bps (period average)	Below 400 bps (2025–2026)	Regional convergence
FDI	0.8% of GDP (annual average)	USD 1,299 million (+191%)	Increased inflows of international capital

Sources: Agenda Ecuador 2040; Central Bank of Ecuador; Inter-American Development Bank. Figures for 2026–2029 are projections and are not guarantees of future performance.

These indicators reflect an improving macroeconomic environment in Ecuador, marked by stronger economic growth, declining country risk, and rising foreign direct investment. Together, these trends are reinforcing market confidence and creating more favorable conditions to mobilize capital, broaden access to productive credit, and support financing for long-term investment initiatives.
 
What Changes for Businesses?

Greater Access to Capital and Financing

Measures to strengthen the financial system and develop capital markets are intended to expand financing alternatives for productive projects and facilitate the flow of resources toward private investment.

New Investment Opportunities

The Agenda identifies strategic sectors — including infrastructure, energy, agribusiness, manufacturing, tourism, and services — as key drivers of economic growth and investment attraction in the years ahead. Within those sectors, it prioritizes initiatives that boost productivity, generate formal employment, and strengthen the country's competitiveness.

Sustainable Financing

The Agenda promotes the development of sustainable financing instruments, including green loans, thematic bonds, and mechanisms designed to channel resources toward projects with economic, environmental, and social impact — establishing sustainability as an increasingly important criterion for capital allocation.

Greater Competitiveness

Companies that invest in productivity, innovation, technology, and institutional strengthening will be better positioned to compete in an increasingly demanding economic environment.
 
Keys to Implementing the Agenda

Agenda Ecuador 2040 does not merely set economic growth targets; it also builds in mechanisms to strengthen its implementation and long-term sustainability. From a business perspective, the following aspects stand out:

Collaborative governance. The involvement of the public sector, the private sector, academia, and multilateral organizations such as the IDB strengthens the Agenda's legitimacy and supports the continuity of its key initiatives.

Phased implementation. The Agenda includes both legislative measures and technical or ministerial actions, allowing certain initiatives to move forward in the short term and creating near-term opportunities for investment and financing.

Financing for resilience. In response to historical flood-related losses of approximately USD 4 billion, the Agenda promotes sustainable financing mechanisms,  aimed at strengthening infrastructure and productive resilience.

How Can Businesses Prepare?

Structure bankable investment initiatives

Develop financial models, feasibility analyses, and business cases that facilitate access to investors and financial institutions.

Strengthen corporate governance

Establish sound decision-making structures, risk management practices, and transparency standards that inspire confidence among investors and lenders.

Incorporate sustainability

Integrate ESG criteria into corporate strategy to gain access to new financing and investment alternatives.

Review the legal and tax structure

Ensure that projects are efficiently structured to maximize viability and regulatory compliance.

Identify investment opportunities

Prioritize high-growth-potential initiatives aligned with the strategic sectors promoted by the Agenda.
 
How Can Robalino Help?

Implementing Agenda Ecuador 2040 will require companies to integrate legal, financial, tax, and strategic considerations into how they structure their projects. In this context, Robalino brings these capabilities together under a single team to support organizations in structuring investment initiatives, financing processes, and sustainable growth strategies, providing an integrated perspective that turns opportunities into viable, executable projects.

Investment, Corporate and Transactional

• Legal and corporate advisory services for investment and expansion processes.
• Mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures, and shareholder arrangements, including acquisition financing.
• Public–private partnerships and concessions, from bid preparation through financial close.
• Corporate reorganizations, restructurings, and refinancings.

Financing and Capital Markets

• Financial structuring and evaluation of investment projects.
• Structuring, negotiation, and documentation of syndicated loans, project finance, and cross-border credit facilities.
• Local and international debt issuances, including thematic, green, and sustainability-linked bonds.
• Multilateral and development finance, including transactions with the IDB, IFC, CAF, DFC, and export credit agencies.
• Sovereign and public finance, including State-backed and resource-backed structures.
• Design and perfection of security packages: mortgages, pledges, trusts (fideicomisos), and assignment of collection flows.

Tax Planning and Investment Incentives

• Tax planning and identification of applicable incentives.
• Investment contracts with the State and special economic development zones.
• Cross-border tax structuring and transfer pricing.

Due Diligence and Transaction Execution

• Due diligence and structuring for financing processes.
• Legal, regulatory, and title due diligence for acquisitions and project financings.
• Negotiation of conditions precedent, legal opinions, and closing deliverables in financings governed by Ecuadorian or foreign law.

Corporate Governance, Risk and Sustainability

• Strengthening of corporate governance, risk management, and sustainability.
• ESG diagnostics and their integration into financing documentation.
• Green, blue, and sustainability-linked instruments, debt-for-nature structures, and conservation finance.
• Climate resilience and catastrophe risk financing.

Regulatory, Compliance and Fintech

• Licensing and authorizations before the Superintendency of Banks, the Superintendency of Companies, Securities and Insurance, the Superintendency of Popular and Solidarity Economy, and the Central Bank of Ecuador.
• AML/CFT and KYC program design, remediation, and support during regulatory examinations.
• Fintech, electronic payment systems, electronic money, and digital financial services.
• Personal data protection and financial consumer protection.

Disputes and Regulatory Defense

• Regulatory litigation and administrative defense before financial and supervisory authorities.
• Arbitration and dispute resolution in financing, infrastructure, and concession contracts.
• Insolvency, workouts, and enforcement of guarantees.

Agenda Ecuador 2040 does not, on its own, guarantee new investment opportunities; it creates the conditions for them to materialize. The difference will lie in each company's ability to plan ahead, structure sound projects, and position itself strategically within an evolving economic environment.