IMF Staff Concluding Statement on Nicaragua
By Guy José Bendaña-Guerrero & Asociados
A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Managua during November 6-17 for the 2023 Article IV Consultation.
According to the staff's concluding statement, Nicaragua’s economy has remained resilient in the face of multiple shocks, supported by appropriate economic policies, substantial buffers, and multilateral support.
Here are some of the key points of the statement:
-After a very strong rebound in 2021, the economy grew at a steady pace since 2022 on the back of private consumption and exports. Real GDP is expected to grow by 4 percent in 2023, inflation to slow down, and the fiscal position of the central government to maintain a small surplus and healthy government deposits. Remittances are projected to reach about 28 percent of GDP at end-2023, double their end-2021 level, driven by the rapid increase of Nicaraguan emigrants.
-Economic growth is expected to continue next year and over the medium term, albeit at a slower rate than average. In 2024 and over the medium term, real GDP is projected to grow by about 3½ percent, supported primarily by private consumption.
-The mission supports the authorities’ plans to continue prudent macroeconomic policies, to maintain resilience and a clear and predictable economic management, while supporting medium-term growth.
-While banks are well-capitalized and liquid, the resilience of the financial sector could be further enhanced. Bank deposits continue to grow, surpassing their pre-crisis aggregate level (measured in Córdobas), while credit to the private sector is also growing solidly. The mission encourages the authorities to align the crisis preparedness framework with best international practices, to obtain complete data for credit and savings cooperatives, and to expand their oversight if needed, prioritizing the largest ones.
-The mission welcomes the authorities’ intentions to continue implementing technical assistance recommendations, especially on improving the quality and consistency of statistics, as statistics are critical to assess risks, better formulate policies, and improve business confidence.
